Uzbekistan > Adaptation Pathways NEW
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Adaptation Pathways for Uzbekistan
Efforts to mitigate and adaptat to the changing climate and its impacts are required in Kyrgyzstan. Here, key recommendations for adaptation measures for Kyrgyzstan are made, building on the climate risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) conducted in which identified specific risk and exposures in the agriculture, energy, water, health, transport, forestry and natural hazards sectors.
These recommendations for climate adaptation focus on adaptation measures for the major changes in climate exposure: heat, extreme precipitation and drought. Seasonal shifts in temperature and precipitation are also taken into account.
The recommendations are worked out for three levels of adaptation measures supporting each other:
- Local level
- Regional level
- National level
On regional and national level, the focus shift from sectoral to policy measures.
It builds on the national Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA).
The measures proposed are not assumed as complete but give a good indication on the related climate adaptation measures. In cooperation between levels a selection has to made of critical and implementable measures fitting the geographic and socio-economic and also the political situation.
Adaptation Options for Uzbekistan at the Local Level
Adaptation at local level takes a sectoral approach.
- Heat is an issue for both rain fed and irrigated farming. Above 37 oC crops tend to experience heat stress. Adaptation approaches can be found in adapted breeds or crops which are more heat resistant or which ripen earlier in the season. At the smaller scale, shaded agriculture is an option. Adapted and proofed seeds and planting should be made available, and supported by building knowledge;
- Deeper rooting, increased organic matter in soil and less evaporation are options. Low tilt and no-tilt soil management, where the soil is less disturbed, offer solutions for climate change adaptation for arable farming. No-tilt and low tilt cultivation requires investment in equipment to be supported at the regional level;
- Alternative crops is recommended, to shift from annuals to perennials such as aromatic herbs. Where new crops are considered, new markets are needed to accommodate them;
Livestock and pasture management
- Heat and drought are major pressures of livestock and pasture management. Pasture degradation is a most pressing human influence.
- Adaptation measures include securing local drinking water supplies for livestock and corales to for adequate overnight safety during summer months. These help to reduce migration time and spread the livestock more evenly over the pasture territory.
- Rotational pasturing will have the greatest economic benefit, increasing productivity up to 30-300 % thanks to the deeper rooting of vegetation reduced drought vulnerability. The social dimension of moving from free pasturing to rotational pasturing is a major bottleneck. Community pasture rights in combination with pasture management planning are important tools to enable this measure. Forestry is an essential partner in this process.
- Mobile electric fencing and the introduction of trained herder canine use are two solutions that can be used to overcome the issue of rotational pasturing of increased manpower. This needs demonstration and investment support. The status of herders is an associated issue.
- The increase of productivity by rotational grazing and hazard reduction are major arguments to stimulate rotational grazing. More sustainable mixes of livestock with low goat percentage or single livestock herd, are helpful in the adaptation.
- To sustain the fodder reserve during periods of drought, haymaking for emergency fodder supply is lucrative. Cooperation with horticulture sector becomes paramount, as fodder production requires much less water, is less vulnerable for drought, and can offer relative high benefits as the fatted livestock is relative more valuable. In emergency drought by lack of fodder, very timely selling of livestock is the best economic solution.
- Another way to reduce the livestock pressure is to reduce the quantity of livestock and focus on higher quality markets, where more profits can be reached.
- Kyrgyzstan faces the issue of migratory herds, which move during the growing season from one area to the other in search for better fodder. This phenomenon is built on traditional rights, bringing them in regular conflict with sedentary livestock pasturing. Creation of migration corridors can be an adaptation solution.
- Horticulture is usually a more intensive and smaller scale form of agriculture than arable farming, with higher profits. This allows more investments in adaptation measures.
- To reduce the sensitivity of heat and drought (and extreme precipitation) under cover horticulture and drip irrigation comes into focus. It is possible, in comparison with flood irrigation regular applied to increase the water efficiency and reduce the water need with 50- 80%.
- Horticulture is most sensitive for climate change. In very dry areas the risk of horticulture is increasing as result of increasing droughts.
- Alternative, less water requiring and more heat resistant crops, is a measure for which market development is needed.
- Higher value agricultural products offer better options for climate adaptation.
- The energy sector can be divided into four levels: production (fossil and hydro), transmission and request. However, the impact is on local level the adaptation measures are all on regional and national level. As presented in the CRVA the energy sector is most vulnerable for heat and drought.
- For fossil power generation it is the cooling capacity which is affected most. In some countries like India the fossil power generation is already reduced by 5%.
- Hydro power is most effected by water availability and extreme discharge (thus extreme precipitation). This requires remodelling of the management of water reservoirs to prevent extreme water levels and flooding (see also water).
- The transmission capacity is impacted by extreme heat, causing to reduce the energy transmission capacity during heat waves. Natural hazards may impact energy infrastructure. Reallocation or preventive measures based on risk mapping has to be assessed.
- The request of energy is strongly increasing as result of heat. Internationally it is expected that as result of the growth in use of air-conditioning the request of energy may increase 25%. Main local measures are greening of the settlements and better insolation of the housing.
- Local alternative energy generation, like solar and wind, can be a good alternative for remote areas, but also to stabilise the energy supply.
- Water management is affected by drought, heat and extreme precipitation.
- Optimal and sustainable use of local water resource, preferable gravity based reduces the dependency on major irrigation infrastructure.
- Water leakage reduction is the first measure to be taken. Here the most results can be gained. Water efficiency in relation to the economic benefits is crucial for agriculture. Drip irrigation (possibly in combination with under cover cultivation) is an example for this.
- Crucial for the communities and cities is the drinking water supply which has to be guaranteed. Increased drinking water request and lower water reserves increase the risk of shortage. Increase of infiltration, (underground) water storage, closed water resources, in combination with water saving are recommended adaptation measures. As alternative local household or community water sources usage are an alternative to match climate influence.
- Water reservoir management is affected by water availability and extreme discharge (thus extreme precipitation). This requires remodelling of the management of water reservoirs to prevent extreme water levels and flooding (see also water) and thus an average lower storage capacity of the reservoirs. This cannot be solved on local level but is part of the regional or national water management.
- Drought and heat are increasing the water request. Measures taken on local level are water efficiency and adapted cultivation techniques (see also agriculture). Water efficiency requires besides adapted management, investment and knowledge in higher efficient water supply to the crops, and alternated crop choice.
- Transport is affected mostly by heat, extreme precipitation and indirectly by natural hazards. As infrastructure management is mostly organised on regional level the measures can be found there. The impact of heat is in the pavement which is rutting and bridges which are extending under heat. Rutting can be prevented by choose of other type, more heat resistant types of asphalt. This is however limited by the winter cold causing cracking. Polymer asphalt has better characteristic regarding cold and heat, a bit more expensive (around 5%) but this is largely compensated by the longer life time by factor 3 and more. On available road pavement shading of the road by trees or reduce access during the hot hours may give relief and will lengthen the lifetime of the pavement.
- Heat is also increasing the risk of accident. Reduced speed and prohibition of overtaking in daytime is one of the measures advised.
- Heavy precipitation is impacting on water / infrastructure crossings like bridges and culverts. The maximum discharge of the watercourse has 6 yearly’s to be check against the maximum throughput of the civil engineering works. This count also for the drainage capacity of the road itself. For the maximum discharge, the drainage area is determent, the roughness of the area and the new identified extreme maximum precipitation (for smaller areas the extreme maximum daily / hourly precipitation or 99percentile precipitation and for larger areas the extreme maximum 5-day precipitation. Based on that the maximum discharge can be identified and compared with the characteristics of the culverts or bridges.
- Other aspect is the sensitivity for natural hazards, possibly influenced by human land use like land degradation. By the measures is the choice between preventive measures like construction of avalanche or mudflow shelters. In most cases is preventive measures like monitoring, artificial avalanche stimulation in combination with road cleaning capacity a cheaper choice.
- The health sector is according to the CRVA most impacted on local level by heat and drought. The calls into hospital are in average increasing per degree C above 25oC. The impact is strongly related to cardio, respiratory diseases and obesity level. Beside that elderly are more impacted. There is also a direct relationship between accidents during labour and in traffic and heat.
- Most simple adaptation measure on local level are the availability of shade (greening of the settlement and housing) and the availability of water to prevent dehydration. Greening of the settlements offers when rightly planned also additional sources of energy. Insolation of houses reduces the risk of overheating. To prevent dehydration, besides the measures mentioned before, the best is structural supply of reliable drinking water. As alternative during heat and drought the supply of bottled drinking water, both in combination of awareness raising on the need to prevent dehydration.
- Forestry is impacted by Climate Change by increased heat and drought. Pest and reduced growth are the result. It forces the forest out of its natural eco zoning. Alternative forest areas need to be identified on higher altitudes or other types of natural types of trees has to be replanted or use should be made of natural seeding.
- Biological pest management is an upcoming method. But still only applicable on local level. A move from monoculture forest to mixed forest reduces the risk for pest development.
- Reforestation has a positive impact on the risk of natural hazards (see natural hazards).
- Heat is one the natural hazards with the highest economic cost, just like drought. As the impact is widely spread it does not attract similar attention as floods for example. a large-scale event which can be prognosed in advance by watching the orientation of the climate systems and long-term weather forecast.
- The adaptation measures are discussed under agriculture, energy, water, transport and health.
- Drought is comparable with the one from heat. The position and strength of the major climate systems are indicative for the longer-term risk of drought. Major drought impact is on agriculture, water management and health. (for measures see under these sectors)
- On local level measures can be taken to reduce the chance of mudflow by upstream mudflow vulnerable creeks, to build dams to catch the flow before it develops as mudflow. The sediment collected behind these dams can be used to plant fruit trees and shrubs to strengthen the function and as food source. Minor and medium mudflow can be strongly reduced by this approach. Other measures are regeneration of degraded land and reforestation.
- Major tool to reduce land degradation is pasture rotation as management tool. Pasture rotation ask more management efforts but can result in an increased productivity of the pastures of 50% up to 500%. And in this way, it pays itself back in a limited number of years. The biggest bottleneck is a social one. Lack of herders and traditional free pasturing are hindering rotational pasture management. Demonstration, awareness and increased pasture rights motivate improved pasture management (see also agriculture).
- Important is the use of land planning to identify mudflow traces to restrict in these areas the economic and social use. So no infrastructure, housing, or other buildings.
Flash flood and flooding
- Flash flood and floods are rather similar. Flash flood can be diverted from mudflows by its reduced sediment flow. Flash flood are more local and have a shorter induction time than a flooding and difficult to predict and to include in early warning. Flash flood risk areas has to be restricted from economic use.
- Flooding is the result of longer duration heavy rainfall in a larger basin. It is impacting sectors like agriculture, transport, but can also threaten settlements and urban areas.
- Increasing the level of dikes around the area is reducing the risk only temporary. More effective is Nature Based Solutions like decrease of land degradation and increased forestation in the highlands, catch the major flow in the upper basin by making use of the available gravel and in this way stimulate infiltration and widening of the river course on the flood risk segment. Where these measures are not sufficient land use should be restricted. Modelling of the discharge is a major tool to predict the risk of flooding.
Landslides and rockfalls
- There is a direct relation between landslides and rockfalls and longer duration precipitation. Human induced land degradation and deforestation are multi-folding the risk of these hazards. Improved land management and reforestation are major adaptation measures. Investigation and monitoring of the risk areas are essential. With help of earth observation with radar information landslides risk can be identified 3 months to 3 years in advance.
- For the area under risk the land use should be restricted to reduce the potential impact.
- The relation between avalanches and climate change is marked by the shift in precipitation to late winter / early spring, and the increased temperature early spring. Important factor is the increased snowfall on lower altitude which increases the impact of avalanches on local societies. In restricted case where socio-economic impact cannot be prevented, the avalanches risk needs to be monitored and can be artificial release of snow avalanches (see also transport).
- The potential impacted area should be restricted from economic use.
Glacier Lake Outburst Flood
- Glacier Lake Outburst Floods are related to last year precipitation. The more precipitation in the previous year and also temperature on high altitude.
- A special type of GLOF is the hidden glacier lake outburst. A hidden glacier lake is covered under a layer of ice and rocks. Raising temperatures increase the melt of the permafrost of the hidden glacier lake. It is said that valley temperatures of above 30 - 35oC might indicate an increased risk of permafrost melt and related outburst.
- Monitoring of the glacier lakes is one of the main adaptation measures for GLOFs. When they become critical the water level can be reduced. This can partly be done by earth observation by comparing images with previous years. Monitoring of seasonal weather can also be used as part of the monitoring.
- The potential impacted area should be restricted from economic use.
Adaptation Options for Uzbekistan at the Regional Level
Regional level is the level where planning, education, services, cooperation and awareness raising is concentrated.
- The regional development plans are a major tool for overall climate resilient development. It allows to bring local level planning to be harmonised and brought to higher level. Condition is that they are future directed and including climate change, which is mostly not the case yet.
- Spatial planning is the instrument by excellence to direct the land use towards the natural condition and exclude risky from of land use for example in hazard zones taken climate change into account. It is also a limited recognised instrument to stimulate the economy by prioritising land for specific land use for example for service centre development, processing industry or market development. But also to protect nature, or reserve land for future infrastructure. It allows to concentrate and attract business activities and increase the interaction All these functions mention above are linked to adaptation measure needed in the face of climate change. Spatial planning needs however nationally to be developed strongly to become future looking and effective.
- River Basin Management is the ideal platform to coordinate natural resource management, inclusive disaster risk management and climate change adaptation as is river basin brings administrative regions and sectors together.
- On regional (district and provincial) level local initiatives meet national policy. This should be the level of development policy. This is however not strongly developed and less communicated and harmonised with community and national level.
- In the framework of climate change adaptation, it is advisable to strengthen the regional policy and develop this towards future oriented development inclusive Climate change and its adaptation.
- The region is the platform where different sectors will meet each other and cooperation can be implemented. For example, the forrestry and pasture management communities can come together to coordinate improving the pasture quality and access to firewood, and to plan reforestation activities.
- Cooperation also helps initiates with action between related sectors such as water management, transport and emergency situation on reducing the impact of natural hazards and infrastructure.
- Services are an essential stage in the value chain development. Without services, like repair, parts, rent, lease, contracting, sale, but also extension, financial and insurance services, no economic development can be expected. This counts just as much for the scaling up and effectiveness of adaptation measures.
- Set up of service centres which are bringing the different services together are stimulating the access and quality of the services and are indirect a condition for successful adaptation. Obliging sale of products to be combined with extension services and services agreement for equipment, is supporting the implementation of adaptation measures, just as the option of contractor work and rental of climate adapted equipment for e.g. low tilt or no-tilt, and lease of drip installation.
- Awareness in general but in specific on climate change adaptation requires a coordinated approach, which on the same time is close enough the impacted stakeholders. Regional level, with support of national level is therefore a suitable level for coordination and implementation.
- To enable local agriculture in implementing adaptation measure there is a need for services, knowledge, cooperation and planning. Under services is understood repair, parts, sale, lease, rent, contractor, financial, insurance. These services will enable agriculture access to new and adapted equipment necessary for adapted management.
- In the field of knowledge, regional extension services, state or commercial, education and awareness raising needs to be organised to allow understanding of climate adaptation measures and to feed the sector with new information on climate risks and adaptation options. To allow new breeds and crops to be successful new value chains has to be developed.
- Under risk management insurance products have to be developed, and early warning for hazards inclusive heat and drought, but also regional risk management monitoring and planning.
- Development of the processing industry and value market can also be part of the adaptation measures. Processing and storage facilities allows products to be sold on other times with better profits. Investment facilities and market support are crucial adaptation measures.
- The energy sector can be divided into four levels: production (fossil and hydro), transmission and request. However, the impact is on local level, the management and thus also adaptation measures, are all organised on regional and national level. As presented in the CRVA the energy sector is most vulnerable for heat and drought. For fossil power generation it is the cooling capacity which is affected most, hydro power is most effected by water availability and extreme discharge (thus extreme precipitation).
- Climate adapted modelling of the river discharge and reservoir management is an essential instrument to reduce the risk of flooding as result of heavy precipitation and buffer capacity in times of drought.
- The cooling of fossil power generation is mostly built for a water temperature of maximum 25 oC. Increased surface water temperature reduces the cooling capacity and limits the energy production. Adaptation means a higher cooling capacity. As gas powered energy generation as a couple times less water for cooling than coal or oil powered, a shift in energy source is for the time being an option for adaptation.
- Most can be expected on energy efficiency, and related building requirements to reduce the increase of air-conditioning as major consumer in time of heat, but also in some areas in time of cold.
- Transmission capacity is reduced in times of heat. This requires increased overall transmission capacity seen the increase of the request by heat.
- The increased drought and heavy precipitation require adaptation of the reservoir management and the request for water. Due to the new weather extremes the buffering capacity of the reservoirs but also the outtake from rivers has to be adapted. As mentioned under energy for climate adaptation new modelling is required of the river discharge and the reservoir management to finetune the new buffering capacity for drought and for extreme discharge.
- There is a need to include the climate impact in the River Basin Management Plan, just as the risk for natural hazards which might disturb the natural flow.
- The increased heat and drought will require water saving and higher water efficiency to maintain the productivity (see also agriculture). Leakage from irrigation canals needs to be reduced and awareness raising required under agriculture from regional level.
- To reduce the extreme discharge and flood risk cooperation is needed with agriculture forestry and transport to revert land degradation. Nature based solutions in the upper basin to retain the water there are organised from this level, as the widening of the riverbed and inclusion of river side forest to prevent flooding and in this way building a climate self-adapting riverbed. This option will require regional coordination.
- Extreme precipitation also causes land erosion and as result increased turbidity in the rivers, followed by sedimentation downstream. This increases the risk of flooding. In the framework of Nature Based Solution upstream measures should be taken to retain the sediment in the upper basin, and even better to reduce the land degradation in cooperation with other partners mentioned.
- Heat and extreme precipitation are major threats for non-interrupted transport. On local level the impact of climate change are described and potential options. On regional level the most effective and economic measures need to be identified, taking into account the importance of the infrastructure.
- The importance of the measure is based on the location between main urban areas and the alternative travel duration. In case of lack of alternative, the risk of isolation of the area and the access to crucial services has to be taken into account.
- Civil engineering works are not always the most cost effective. In the framework of climate change Nature Based Solution or management solution like mentioned on local level can be more cost effective.
- Adaptation is proofed by the world transport organisation – PIARC to be at least 5 times more cost effective than the impact of climate change and related natural hazards.
- There is a direct relation between call into hospitals and temperature. Internationally with every degree temperature increase the number of calls into hospital raise with 2,5%. This requires increased staffing, reserve capacity for heat waves, transport facilities, and emergency budget, etc. To reduce the calls into hospital awareness raising and water supply on local level has to be organised, to prevent overheating and dehydration as major causes. Greening of the surrounding and insolation of houses has to be promoted as adaptation measures. Also the number of road accidents increases with the temperature and adding to the medical pressure (see also transport).
- Awareness raising and early warning are major tools in the adaptation to climate extremes. Risk of natural hazards are also impacting health.
- As result of increased heat and drought natural forest types tend to shift their ecological zone to higher altitude. New forest plans have to be developed with land reservation on higher altitude and cooler slopes to new forest development to compensate the lost forest eco zones.
- Re-forestation is needed in the framework land degradation and disaster risk reduction (see natural hazards, agriculture)
- On regional level the climate impact and adaption of measures needs to be collected steered to be evaluated on national level. Regional level is also the platform to organise awareness raising on regional and local level. On regional level overviews need to be created of the community risk and development plans and harmonised with the regional development planning and the river basin management planning.
- Hydropower and water management are sharing the adaptation measures on regional level. Land is shared by forestry, agriculture and infrastructure. This requires cross-sectoral cooperation and adaptation. Cross-sectoral cooperation will also ease the financing of adaptation measures.
Adaptation Options for Uzbekistan at National Level
The national measures include rights, policy, legal provisions, budgeting, information, economic incentives, and monitoring.
Important instrument in climate adaptation is the approval of right like Land rights, water rights, market access rights, information rights. They are essential in three direction: the ownership feeling, and the long term access to natural resources like water and the access to financing.
Lack of rights makes it very difficult to get access to the financial market and receive loans for investments. Land rights and property rights are deciding the creditworthiness of the client through the guarantees he/she can deliver.
Priority measures and priority groups
Climate adaptation can be divided by management (the easiest), policy, planning and cooperation, and investments. Management measures are the easiest taken.
Investments for technical solutions like construction are featured in most sectors. A road avalanche shelter is more fancy and easy selling. Nature Based Solution is an upcoming approach where use is made on natural processes instead of limiting them as in the example above. Nature based solution are not always cheaper to invest in, but serve different sectors and biodiversity at the same time, and reducing the long-term cost.
Another priority measure is the use of spatial (or territorial) planning to prevent risky or unwise use of a territory. Forward looking and sustainable Spatial Planning needs to be further developed to become effective and should include climate change.
By law or policy responsible institutions for implementation of adaptation measures and control of them has to be identified.
The effectiveness of climate adaptation policy and measures is largely depending on the sectoral implementation. The capacity in the sectors to implementation cross-cutting issues has to be further developed and institutional settled in the form of desk or department. To harmonise between sectors a permanent National Platform on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management would be very supportive measure.
Functions of the Law in Climate Policy has a safeguarding function, a function within the framework of dispute resolution, and a function as a policy instrument. The safeguarding function guarantees that citizens are able to feel secure in a state—that they have a trustworthy government. For instance, the protection of property should ensure that the government is unable to use the land owned by a private individual for the purpose of building dikes or water-storage areas without expropriation or compensation. The interests which the government pledges to protect also fall within the scope of the safeguarding function.
Safeguarding Function of Law Safeguarding elements consist not only the rule of law and legal certainty but also binding environmental-safety and quality standards that aim to protect and guarantee a certain level of protection for citizens.
An important precondition for climate-adaptation policy is that adequate attention is paid to democratic decision-making, the separation of powers, and a system of checks and balances, the legality of government action, and also the existence of fundamental rights, legal and policy principles of good governance, adaptation management, and an adequate system of legal protection.
Law as a Policy Instrument The second important role of the law is as a policy instrument. This is the role that usually receives the most attention because many statutory regulations are realized within this framework on the international, supranational, national, and regional levels. One important research theme relates to the effectiveness of the system of regulations and norms which should preferably be studied from the social-scientific perspective. The effectiveness of the various judicial-control instruments can vary to a large extent, and the correct choice depends on the problem that needs to be resolved. Whether the current trend to replace classic control instruments with softer, informal, or economic-control instruments will really lead to faster and better results in the field of adaptation has not been empirically studied as yet. This is also why the guarantee function described above should be regarded as preconditional, so that a fair distribution of wealth and risks is guaranteed and sufficient protection against government action is assured.
National governance on climate change requires understanding of new statutory language that allow management of natural resources and various sectors of economy under constantly changing climatic conditions. As climate change is a dynamic process, it should provide flexibility and Reclassify types and use of environmental resources and need for Monitor and preparedness for threats
It should take into account latest available science and information about effect of CC:
• Slow onset climatic like heat and drought,
• Rapid onset events like natural hazards, like flash flood, mudflow, landslide, flooding or avalanche
Incorporation into the governmental planning process by adaptation plans and mainstreaming adaptation into existing planning processes:
• Pragmatic measures which together constitute an adaptation measure
• Besides the environmental Code, also into Water Code, Land Code, Health Code, Building Code
• collecting information
• conducting vulnerability assessments
• incorporating adaptation into planning processes
• developing and implementation of adaptation measures
• monitoring and evaluation of effectiveness of adaptation measures
• proper competency of governmental bodies to fulfil their duties
This requires need for interagency cooperation, depending on governmental structures, existing dynamics and capacity and political will.
The strength of CCA legislation lies in their inclusion into sectoral legislation, by-laws and instructions like building instructions.
With targeted budgeting government for green economic and climate resilient development is a major governmental tool. This is rather decisive for the implementation of the CC policy. Decision of government to priorities budget for green, nature based or other climate adapted investments is a driver for public investments. For the budgeting also requirements for climate proofing of investment can be set.
Economic incentives like tax incentives, subsidies, and guarantees are important adaptation tools to stimulate Green or climate change smart investments. Under economic incentives also state guarantees for loans can be classified or restriction to the level of required guarantees requested by private banking.
Monitoring Natural Resources
Monitoring of natural resources shifts besides the traditional hydrological and meteorological monitoring stations to Earth Observation making use of satellite information and on local level drones. Satellite information is to increasing extend of no-cost available from ESA (Copernicus programme), NASA (USA), Japan and other countries. Where land-based monitoring station offer spot information, Earth Observation offers nationwide grid information with a detail of 1 meter to 100 km, which will serve detail.
Information for climate adaptation is for example:
- Land productivity and their trends: Information on land degradation, Agricultural production (incl. forecast)
- Land use and changes in land use: Disaster Risk Management, Unsustainable land use
- Biomass: Deforestation / reforestation
- Soil Moisture: Land degradation, Drought risk
- Elevation: Slope analysis
- Change in elevation (3 mm accuracy): Water level, Early landslide detection and glacier volume, Flood area detection
- Groundwater: Groundwater resources and changes due to drought or over extraction
- Soil temperature and above soil temperature
- Wind direction and speed on different altitudes
- Air quality incl. ozon and radiation
- Water quality: Turbidity and algae growth
Kyrgyzstan's capacity in earth observation is limited. To enable use of Earth Observation for climate adaptation and disaster risk it is needed to concentrate the national capacity in one organisation, serving from there the different institutions and public in open access.
Drone technology can be applied to gain more detailed information. For protection of privacy and safety there is a need for regulation.
Monitoring the Effectiveness of Climate Adaptation Measures
With the uncertainty of climate change, there is need for adaptive measures, which can be easily adapted to new climatic circumstances. The effectiveness of adaptation has also a strong dependent on the socio-economic and geographic sensitivity. A measure effective in one area will not guarantee the effectiveness in others as the adaptive capacity or social structure not serve the measures to high enough level. Monitoring of the result in open access will be essential for future adaptation programming.
Monitoring the Effectiveness of Investment
Adaptation will create new flows of public money. To guide that and prevent ineffective or illegal use increased monitoring of the money flows is wished.
This monitoring is also important to assess the economic effectiveness of investment of the adaptation measures. It will help to assess besides the technical effectiveness the economic effectiveness of the climate adaptation measures and to include this assessment in the selection of measures.
- Agriculture agencies and private companies can take advantage of digital technology, better weather information, and farmer-to-farmer education to improve technical assistance. This includes early warning facilities and free hydrometeorological and environmental information supply. Investments in hydrometeorological improvement of monitoring and information supply are seen as the ones with the highest economic return. Payback period of one year are no exemption.
- Government, development agencies, and the private sector to boost funding for demand-driven research and development. Especially for agriculture, but also for other sectors to stimulate or direct research towards climate adaptation is a requirement to successful local adaptation. For example, to test the climate resilience of new breed brought on the market. In relation to this the improved knowledge transfer through education and extension services.
- Agriculture agencies to improve the distribution of seeds, the protection of genetic crop diversity, and the rate of development of new crop varieties.
- Government, development agencies, and private companies to help smallholders diversify their incomes.
- Government to create and strengthen social security systems
- Government and the private sector to explore weather-based agricultural insurance for smallholders
- Private and public financial institutions to improve access to finance.
- Government and development agencies to improve rights and resources for women farmers
- Government to develop transition funds to help those farmers most affected by climate change
- Government to assist pastoralists
- Government to redirect public support to facilitate climate-smart decision-making
- Government to support synergies and avoid tensions between adaptation and mitigation
- Government to adopt measures to conserve land and water resources at the landscape scale, including agroecological approaches
The energy sector can be divided into four levels: production (fossil and hydro), transmission and request. However, the impact is on local level the adaptation measures are all on regional and national level. As presented in the CRVA the energy sector is most vulnerable for heat and drought. For fossil power generation it is the cooling capacity which is affected most, hydro power is most effected by water availability and extreme discharge (thus extreme precipitation).
State policy is a driver for transition of energy to non-fossil energy sources, if it is hydro, solar or wind. State policy is also the driving forces on energy saving by adapting building regulations, environmental code, etc.
- Diversification of energy sources
- Local and non-fossil energy supply
- Mobilize private sector investment in resilient infrastructure
Integration of climate change into River Basin Management (RBM), increasing the effectiveness of Water User Associations (WUA) to decrease the water footprint are national adaptation measures. Open information systems on water resource and climate change integrated into water management planning, supported by climate adapted modelling are major services to be applied to the water sector:
- Harness the power of nature and expand water infrastructure.
- Government to invest in healthy watersheds and enhance and expand water infrastructure
- Cope with water scarcity with water efficiency. Government agencies to reallocate water to society’s highest priorities. Cities to become water-smart and farmers, with the help of agricultural ministries, to use water more efficiently
- Prepare for a changing climate by planning for floods and droughts; water resource agencies to take new climate risks into account at every level of planning and operations; Government agencies to build better water-monitoring systems;
- Scale up water financing, while improving water governance
Undertake inclusive and climate-informed planning for new and existing infrastructure
- Government, development agencies, and the private sector to collaborate to strengthen knowledge and capacity for managing climate risks
- Infrastructure asset owners to assess and manage climate risks to those assets.
- Government to use strategic planning to create and finance more climate-resilient infrastructure systems
Mandate climate-resilient design
- Government to develop and update national technical codes and standards to account for physical climate risks, adapting international best practices to local conditions
- Public and private investors to screen all significant new and retrofitted infrastructure projects to ensure that they are resilient to climate change
Mobilize private sector investment in resilient infrastructure
- Government and public finance institutions to reduce the real or perceived risks to investing in resilient infrastructure
- Government to explore the use of new financing models
- Government to ensure that their direct procurement of infrastructure, and the economic regulation of privately owned utilities, supports resilient options
Prepare financing to minimize disruption when infrastructure damage occurs
- Insurance industry, asset owners, governments, and donors to work to achieve more rapid recovery after disasters hit.
Reserved funds, staffing and capacity arrangements should be made available to enable regional medical facilities to match with extreme weather. Awareness materials and educational capacity to be developed.
In cooperation with other sectors adaptation measure like drinking water supply to be arranged to reduce the health risk of extreme heat and drought, and early warning and relevant protocols brought into place.
- Preparedness for extreme weather event and hazard incl. early warning
- Funds for extreme events
- Awareness raising to adapt to extreme events
To allow forest to be shift to new ecozones, land has to be reserved to remain valuable forest type. There is need for legislation to allow protected areas to be extended based on climate change induced impacts.
- Cooperation with other land users and communities
- Cooperation in hazard reduction
- Reservation of land to allow forest to shift with a changing climate
Reduce long-term vulnerability and exposure
- Kyrgyzstan to develop national strategies and provide dedicated funding for disaster risk reduction and include them into sectoral policies
Boost efforts to warn, respond, and protect
- Government to invest more in early warning systems and in ensuring that those warnings are heard and acted upon
- Government to provide warnings and partner with civil society to ensure effective responses for new and emerging risks from climate change
Increase capacities to absorb and recover from extreme events
- Government and development agencies to scale up financial solutions that reduce disaster shocks on public finances
- Government to expand and tailor social safety nets to support both shock-response and long-term resilience
- Government to plan for recovery and response before disasters hit