Kyrgyzsan > Impacts By Sectors > Agricolture
Explore the overview for a general context of how vulnerable and resilient Kyrgyzstan is to climate change. Explore climate impact and vulnerability by sector. View the results of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Kyrgyzstan. Explore the various options for climate adaptation in key sectors.
Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Changes to the climate have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:
When temperatures increase past 37oC most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature over 40oC may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists for the most parts of Kyrgyzstan. Such risk exists for mostly northern Kyrgyzstan. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest.
In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.
The increase of heavy precipitation causes additional erosion and waterlogging, with less groundwater recharge and ultimately lead to reduced water capacity. Extremes in precipitation will also increase the risk of crop damage / failure.
Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increases.
Agriculture in Kyrgyzstan will experience a variation of impacts at regional level. The most vulnerable regions are Chuy, Issyk-Kul and the eastern part of Jalal-Abad and Osh, where the impact is expected to be greatest. Batken and Osh province could very well experience an increase in agricultural productivity thanks to increased levels of precipitation and less drought risk. This will not only impact the producers, but also on the processing industry, trade and consumers.