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Kyrgyzsan > Impacts By Sectors > Hazards



Explore the overview for a general context of how vulnerable and resilient Kyrgyzstan is to climate change. Explore climate impact and vulnerability by sector. View the results of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Kyrgyzstan. Explore the various options for climate adaptation in key sectors.


Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Kyrgyzstan are listed below:

With the increase in temperature as one of the causes, also on high altitude, the glaciers are melting, increasing formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood.

Rainfall events are now occurring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains, thus increasing the risk for avalanches.

Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls.  The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.

Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards.  And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high.  Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.

Sector Vulnerability

The main hazards that are expected to increase in Kyrgyzstan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs. These hazards are, for the most part, recognized by, and fall under the purview of sectoral ministries such as agriculture.  Northern provinces will be impacted mostly by drought, while the western provinces will be affected mostly by extreme precipitation, which will cause additional risk of hazards like mudflow, landslide, flash flood and flooding.  The areas of Jalal-Abad, Naryn and Batken have a low adaptive capacity to deal with such hazards, and therefore need additional attention.