Uzbekistan > Impacts By Sectors > Hazards

СТРАНОВОЙ ПРОФИЛЬ

Узбекистан

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Hazards

Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).

Some of the most direct inpats that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:

Rising temperatures, even at high altitude, is causing glaciers to melt more rapidly, leading to new glacial lakes to be formed.  These new glacial lakes can hold limited volumes before they overflow and flood downstream. 

Precipitation is now occuring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountainous regions, elevating the risk of avalanches.

Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls.  The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.

Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost to Uzbekistan under the hazards.  And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high.  Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought and manmade activity.

Sector Vulnerability

The main hazards which are expected to become greater in Uzbekistan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are projected to take the greatest economic toll on the country. The Ferghana valley will be most impacted by hazards associated with heavier rainfall, such as flash flood, flood, mudflow and landslides. Kashkadarya and Surkhondarya provinces will be impacted mainly by greater heat. Most river basins are projected to experience increased flood risk. For the main flow of the Syr Darya, a reduced risk is expected, not accounting for all tributaries. Of significant concern is the relatively low adaptive capacity in Surkhondarya, Namangan, Fergana and Andijan provinces.