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Uzbekistan > Impacts By Sectors > Agricolture



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Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Uzbekistan are listed below:

When temperatures increase past 37°C, most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperatures above 40°C may render plant crops infertile. Such a risk persists for most of Uzbekistan. Also, with rising temperatures, pest and disease may develop earlier in the growing season. The early onset of hotter temperatures will also affect the blooming of cereals and grain crops, potentially resulting in a diminished harvest.

In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially offset the gains for the sector.

The increase of heavy precipitation causes additional erosion and waterlogging, leading to less groundwater recharge rates and ultimately affects overall water capacity.  Extremes in precipitation will also increase the risk of crop damage / failure.

Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increases.

Sector Vulnerability

Agriculture in Uzbekistan is expected to be most affected by climate exposure in Surkhondarya, Jizzaks, Syrdarya and Tashkent provinces, including for rainfed and groundwater-based irrigated agriculture. Increase of extreme temperature and warmth duration will have a significant impact. Temperatures will reach above 37-40oC earlier in the growing season, thus shortening the effective growing season. The increase of extreme precipitation will balance out the advantages of greater total precipitation.  Of increasing concern is the decrease of soil productivity (measured by NVDI) in relation to soil moisture, which is seen across the whole Central Asia Region, including Uzbekistan. This phenomenon seems to indicate land degradation as a result of human activity, namely animal husbandary practices. This is evident in eastern Navoy, Southern Kashkadarya, Surkhondarya, Tashkent and eastern Syrdarya and Fergana provinces.