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Uzbekistan > Climate Summary



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Climate Summary

Uzbekistan's climate is arid continental -- temperate in the north, and sub-tropical in the south. The country’s climate is characterized by seasonal and day-to-night fluctuations in air temperatures. Summers are long, dry and hot; Spring is humid; and Winter is irregular. 

Air temperatures in the desert can reach 45-49°C, while in the south temperatures drop to -25°C. 

Precipitation has regional variation. The plains region receives a minimal 80-200 mm/year, while the foothills receive as much as 300-400 mm/year, and about 600-800 mm/year on the west and southwestern slopes of mountain ridges.

Climate Projections

Climate models make the following projections for Uzbekistan's future climate:

  • Mean summer temperatures (May to September) range from less than 22°C to 28-30°C in central districts.
  • Mean winter (December to early February) temperatures range from -9°С in northern districts of the country to 5-7°C in south-eastern districts.
  • Extreme temperatures have dropped below -35°С during severe winters and have exceeded 50°С in summer heat extremes.
  • Since 1938, all regions of Uzbekistan have experienced a trend of increased mean minimum and maximum temperatures for all seasons of the year. This warming trend is less pronounced in the Tyan-Shan and Pamir-Alay Mountain branches than in the rest of the country.
  • Climate change is expected to produce increases in monthly maximum temperatures across Uzbekistan. The model ensemble’s estimate of warming under the highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5) is an average temperature increase of 2.4ºC by mid-century and nearly 5ºC by end of the century.
  • The number of hot days in Uzbekistan is projected to increase by 28.6 days by 2040-2059 days, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
  • The number of tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20°C) is projected to increase by over 31 days by 2040-2059, under a RCP 8.5 scenario.
  • Precipitation falls predominately in winter and spring, and rainfall is extremely sparse between June to August.  
  • March and April typically have the highest rainfall.
  • Changes in historical precipitation patterns have resulted in increased aridity in agricultural areas, low river flow and over-stressed water sources.
  • Uzbekistan will experience a high variability of rainfall across different agroecological and climatic zones.
  • Across the country, however, there have been some spatial differences in precipitation trends, with annual precipitation declining between 50-100mm in some central and eastern districts and moderately increasing in areas surrounding the Aral Sea.
  • Increased heat and precipitation variability will lead to increased evapotranspiration in summer months resulting in a decrease in river flowing conditions.
  • Future projections suggest that increased glacier melting (glaciers in Central Asia have shrunk by 25% and are expected to shrink by another 25% over the next 20 years) is expected to impact water availability and river flow in the short to long term in Uzbekistan.