Tajikistan > Climate Summary

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Tajikistan

Explore the overview for a general context of how vulnerable and resilient Tajikistan is to climate change. Explore climate impact and vulnerability by sector. View the results of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Tajikistan. Explore the various options for climate adaptation in key sectors.

Climate Summary

Tajikistan experiences a mid-latitude continental climate, with hot summers and mild winters. The Pamir Mountain range has semiarid to polar climate, while the eastern and southern areas experience mainly dry desert conditions. The Pamir and Alaj-Turkstan ranges receive abundant snow in winter, which later feeds snowmelt into the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers. The clash of air masses can cause unstable weather in the mountains, especially in the period from November to April. Warm, sub-tropical air masses can bring dust storms northward from Afghanistan, while in the valleys, a down-slope, warm and dry wind can blow. In the eastern part of the country, which is affected by the Asian monsoon, the wind can bring dust storms also in summer.

Climate Projections

Climate models make the following projections for Tajikistan's future climate:

  • Since 1940, the mean annual temperature increased by 0.3-1.2°C, with an average of 0.1-0.2°C per decade. The minimum mean temperature also increased by 0.5-2.0°C with some exceptions in high mountainous areas, where it dropped by 0.1°C. Smaller temperature increases have been noticed in higher altitudes and larger increases in lower altitudes. Urbanization has caused the near surface area temperature of large cities has increased by 1.2-1.9°C.
  • The number of days with temperature equal to 40°C or over has increased in the most flat areas of the country.
  • The mean annual temperatures are projected to be warmer by approximately 2°C by 2050. The months of December, January , February and June, July, and August are likely to see the most warming.
  • Cold days are projected to decrease by 35 days by 2050.
  • Since 1940, the annual precipitation pattern shows insignificant increase (i.e. 8% for altitudes of up to 2,500 m) and insignificant decrease (i.e. 3% in the mountainous area). The amount of precipitation in the Eastern Pamir reduced by 5 to 10%, and by 44% in Murghab. Precipitation similarly decreased in the southern lowland areas.  Precipitation increased by 5 to 10% in Central Tajikistan, by 20% in the southern mountainous area, and by 5 to 30% in the mountains of northern  Tajikistan,  with  the exception  of  high  mountains.
  • The total number of precipitation days has decreased in the country, most notably in Iskandarkul, where it has decreased by 48 days.
  • The mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease by 5%. December, January, February and March, April May precipitation is projected to decrease by 2% and 5% respectively by 2050. June, July, August precipitation and September, October, November precipitation is projected to increase by 1% and 4%, respectively.
  • Dry days are projected to increase by approximately 3 days by 2050.
  • Winters are projected to be drier and summers wetter, which could result in both increased floods and droughts.