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Tajikistan > Impacts By Sectors > Hazards



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Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Tajikistan are listed below:

With the increase in temperature as one of the causes, also on high altitude, the glaciers are melting, increasing formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood

Precipitations is now happening earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains thus increasing the risk for avalanches.

Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls.  The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.

Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards.  And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for drought spell is high.  Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.

Sector Vulnerability

The main hazards that are expected to increase in Tajikistan are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs to GNI.  More intense heavy precipitation will create greater risk of hazards like mudflow, flash flood, flooding, landslides and rockfall. Most river basins in Sughd, Republican Subordinate and Khatlon may experience increased flood risk. Rising temperatures in the mountain ranges will increase the risk of glacier lake outburst and inundation. The seasonal shift in precipitation to spring in combination with earlier spring temperatures will increase the avalanche risk. The low adaptive capacity in Khatlon is a significant concern under these conditions, and needs additional attention.