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Tajikistan > Impacts By Sectors > Forestry



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Only 3% of Tajikistan is covered by forests. The increase in heat will cause a shift in the ecological zones of the country and the likelihood that pest / diseases destroy large swaths of forest areas. Similar to the agriculture sector, rising temperatures will cause stress in the growth of the forests. Furthermore, although the expected increase in precipitation over Tajikistan might provide a positive impact, the increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events will equally negatively impact these parts of the country due to flooding that cause greater soil erosion in the forest areas.

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the forestry sector in Tajikistan are listed below:

Increased heat patterns will result in additional incidence of pests and disease. Heat also contributes to a shift in ecological zones and causes more stress on the ecology. The margins of forest growth are expected to be reduced, with an increase in wildfire incidence.

The increase in precipitation that is expected over Tajikistan could have a net positive effect on the forest areas.

Heavier precipitation events will result in increased runoff and the associated risk of soil erosion.  Less water is expected to infiltrate to the aquifer, increasing the risk of waterlogging.

Over the long-term, the increase in the frequency and severity of droughts will cause a reduction in the forest growth, with increased incidence of wildfires.

Sector Vulnerability

Though forests only comprise 3% of Tajikistan's overall territory, forestry is very important for disaster risk reduction. As a result of more heat and drought, Tajikistan stands to see a shift in the eco-zoning to colder areas (especially in the mountains) and an increase of pests and disease.