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Tajikistan > Impacts By Sectors > Agricolture



Explore the overview for a general context of how vulnerable and resilient Tajikistan is to climate change. Explore climate impact and vulnerability by sector. View the results of the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Tajikistan. Explore the various options for climate adaptation in key sectors.


Food security will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems.

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Tajikistan are listed below:

When temperatures increase past 37oC, most crops experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature over 40°C may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists especially for Khatlon province. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest.

In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially eliminate the positive impacts for the sector.

The increase of heavy precipitation is expected to cause additional soil erosion and waterlogging, less groundwater infiltration, and therefore less effective water capacity overall.  A greater risk of crop damage and failure is also anticipated.

Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increases the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock. The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increase.

Sector Vulnerability

Agriculture in Tajikistan may experience an overall decrease of productivity, with regional variations.  Khatlon province may experience a decrease of productivity, while the Fergana valley may experience a slight rise in productivity due to greater precipitation and fewer drought events. However, measures are needed to protect soil erosion. In general, improved pasture management is required to reduce land degradation, which is compounding the impacts of climate change.