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Turkmenistan > Impacts By Sectors > Agricolture



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Food security in Turkmenistan will be threatened due to projected impacts of global climate change and extreme weather on crop nutrient content and yields, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and land use. Climate changes have already affected crop suitability in many areas, resulting in changes in the production levels of main agricultural crops. Crop production is negatively affected by the increase in both direct and indirect climate extremes. Direct extremes include changes in rainfall extremes, increases in hot nights, extremely high daytime temperature, drought, heat stress, flood and chilling damage. And indirect effects include the spread of pest and diseases, which can also have detrimental effects on cropping systems

Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the agriculture sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:

When temperatures rise above 37oC, most crops begin to experience stress or stop growing altogether. Temperature above 40 °C may render the plants infertile. Such a risk exists for all regions of Turkmenistan. Also, with the increase of temperature, pest and disease develop earlier in the season. Early incidence of heat will reduce the flowering of cereals and grain crops, resulting in a decreased harvest. There will also begin to see a change in which crops are suitable in certain areas. 


In general, the higher amount of precipitation expected over most of the country would increase the productivity. However, the expected shift in seasonality and the increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events will essentially offset the positive impacts for the sector.

The increase of heavy precipitation will cause additional erosion and waterlogging and contribute to lesser rates of groundwater infiltration.  Ultimately, these conditions will cause a drop in effective water capacity and a greater risk of damage or failure of crops.

Drought spells put great stress on crop growth and increase the water requirements for rainfed and irrigated arable land. It also effects the production of fodder crops for livestock.  The potential of damage from wildfires increases, while degradation to land and wind erosion also increase.

Sector Vulnerability

The agriculture sector in Turkmenistan will be the hardest impacted by climate exposure in Dashoguz and Mary provinces, with regional variations.  The extended duration of drought periods, in combination with more heavy precipitation, are the major causes. More severe heat, especially when temperatures reach over 37-40oC will also impact agricultural production. Crops like wheat that have a lower stress threshold will suffer the first. As most arable farming is irrigated and reliant upon water supply, livestock is projected to be significantly affected.