Turkmenistan > Impacts By Sectors > Hazards
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Overall risks from climate-related impacts are evaluated based on the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability of communities (susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to adapt), and exposure of human and natural systems. Changes in both the climate system and socioeconomic processes -including adaptation and mitigation actions- are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2014).
Some of the most direct impacts that climate change might have on the hazards sector in Turkmenistan are listed below:
With rising temperatures at even higher altitude, the glaciers are melting, leading to the formation of new glacier lakes and with that the chance on glacier lake outburst flood.
Precipitation events are now occurring earlier in the season and at lower elevations in the mountains, thus increasing the risk for avalanches.
Extreme rainfall events increase the risk of floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides and rockfalls. The risk is also strongly influenced by land degradation.
Increased frequency and duration of drought spells is expected to become one of the biggest economic cost under the hazards in Turkmenistan. And when drought risk and water stress coincide, the sensitivity for a drought spell is severe. Deforestation is also expected to increase due to drought.
The main hazards that are expected to increase are: heat, extreme precipitation, drought and land degradation. Heat, drought and land degradation are expected to become the highest economic costs. Issues is that these are mostly not recognized as hazard as the responsibility is firstly not under Emergency Situations but under other sectoral institutions like agriculture. North western provinces will be impacted most by drought, south eastern provinces most by extreme precipitation. Most river basins may experience increased flood risk. Syr dary, Turgay, Iskim and Uralsk River Basins in contrary, may expect reduced flood risk.